Seminar by Francesco Zollino

SALA SEMINARI - 1° PIANO, PALAZZO LEVI CASES, VIA DEL SANTO 33 - ORE 13.00

12.11.2019

Seminar by Francesco Zollino, Banca d'Italia

Title: Long-run factor accumulation and productivity trends in Italy

Abstract. In this paper we first spell out the methodology underlying the construction of a new annual labour and capital stock dataset for Italy from 1861 through 2017. The labour dataset includes both headcount and full-time equivalent estimates of labour at a ten-sector level of disaggregation. Net capital stock estimates are instead broken down by asset type (means of transport; machinery and equipment; intangibles; construction, in turn divided into residential and non-residential). Based on this dataset, we then reassess the proximate causes of Italy’s economic development in a historical perspective. Italy’s post-unification development process was hindered by the large size of the poorly productive primary sector and by sluggish total factor productivity (TFP) growth; expanding manufacturing and strong TFP dynamics were the main drivers of the country’s impressive post-WWII growth spurt. The disappointing performance of the Italian economy since 1993 is explained largely by slow labour productivity dynamics in the now dominant services sector and by weak aggregate TFP growth.