"Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment"

The COVID-19 pandemic and the 40-year high inflation rate have triggered massive spikes in risk and uncertainty and raised many challenges for macroeconomic modelers and forecasters. Modeling these events and their consequences for the business cycle as well as for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators is challenging because it calls for frameworks able to handle health shocks, sudden and abrupt structural changes (among which supply chain disruptions), pressures on various energy markets, and the unconventional policy responses that have been put into place by most Governments around the world.

Following the success of the first four conferences, the University of Padua, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, International Institute of Forecasters, American University, and International Monetary Fund will jointly organize the 5th Biennial Conference on “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”. Our in-person, two-day conference will bring together researchers and policymakers to present and discuss novel approaches to understand how to effectively model the uncertainty-business cycle relationship and forecast key macroeconomic indicators in the context of a changing environment.

The 5th Biennial Conference on "Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment" will take place on 21-22 September 2023 at the University of Padua, Italy.

The keynote speakers will be David Altig (Atlanta Fed) and Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University).

JIMF Special Issue
Selected papers will be considered for an expedited review process for a Journal of International Money and Finance special issue titled “Uncertainty and Economic Activity”. The special issue will be edited by Menzie Chinn, Efrem Castelnuovo, Davide Furceri, and Xuguang Simon Sheng.

Paper Submission Procedure 
Please send full papers as a PDF to uncertainty.padova@gmail.com and gianni.p87@gmail.com with the subject “Uncertainty conference in Padova”. The deadline for paper submissions is May 31, 2023. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by June 30, 2023.


  • Giovanni Caggiano (dSEA University of Padua)
  • Efrem Castelnuovo (dSEA University of Padua)
  • Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund)
  • Brent Meyer (Federal Reserve Bank at Atlanta)
  • Giovanni Pellegrino (dSEA University of Padua)
  • Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)

Scientific Committee (including conference organizers)

  • Wojtek Charemza (Vistula University)
  • Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin-Madison, JIMF coeditor)
  • Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School)
  • Klodiana Istrefi (Banque de France)
  • Svetlana Makarova (University College London)
  • Gabriel Mathy (American University)
  • Chiara Scotti (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
  • Bo Sun (University of Virginia)